Bleak UK Holiday, Except Online

Overall, 2008 spending will be down from 2007 levels, said Deloitte. Average planned expenditure on gifts was down £26 ($48) per person, to £359 ($661). Most respondents also hoped to save on socializing and focus instead on what Deloitte calls "in-tertainment": taking a cue from "post-war parents and grandparents" and staying at home for the festivities, rather than going out to restaurants, pubs, clubs or hotels for lavish events. Add food and drink to the picture, and the average spend per consumer is expected to be £51 ($94) less than in 2007, and even marginally lower than 2006 outlays.

About the same percentage (15%) of respondents said they would do their holiday shopping online this year as did last year (14%). That is still more than twice the 7% who said they shopped online during the 2006 holidays.

The online shopping landscape has changed far more than the world of physical stores. For one thing, the number of online shoppers has grown. In 2006, 47% of Deloitte's respondents said they did not use the Internet for holiday shopping or buying. By 2008, that proportion had dropped to 36%.

Online shopping is widespread among UK Internet users. eMarketer estimates more than three-quarters of the online population has made at least one purchase in the past year.

On a brighter note, robust e-commerce growth will continue. Deloitte projected that total online expenditures for food and gifts this holiday will reach £4.7 billion ($8.65 billion), 10% higher than in 2007.

One-half of those polled by Deloitte said they would do some or all of their holiday shopping on the Internet this year, compared with 44% in 2007. Moreover, established online shoppers, who tend to be male, younger and more affluent than the wider population, said they planned to spend an average of £773 ($1,422) during the 2008 holiday season-18% more than the average of all survey respondents.