How Big Will Mobile Get?

As developing mobile markets such as Brazil, Russia, India and China (the "BRIC" countries) add more subscribers, worldwide mobile revenues are expected to jump 56% to $1.03 trillion in 2013 from $769 billion in 2007, according to Informa Telecoms & Media.

The company predicted massive growth in the number of mobile subscriptions worldwide, with many users having more than one handset or SIM card. Informa said this would push subscription penetration to nearly 75% in 2013, with some countries passing 150%. The global ratio of subscriptions to subscribers was predicted to increase from 1.29 in 2007 to 1.32 in 2013.

Informa's mobile subscription prediction is aggressive. In December 2008, Frost & Sullivan estimated that mobile subscriptions would just pass 50% worldwide in 2013.

Strategy Analytics' estimate, made in June 2008, was higher still.

eMarketer agrees that mobile subscription penetration will grow especially quickly in the BRIC countries, but forecasts that worldwide subscribership will only reach 4.3 billion in 2012.