Choice for local newspapers: evolve or die

Local newspapers are nearing the end of their Cretaceous era. The asteroids – recession and the internet – have landed and the K-T extinction horizon is imminent. A recent study by Deloitte observed that the future for local papers had moved from "difficult to impossible". Sir Martin Sorrell of WPP says old media will "never be as profitable as it has been". The Chicago Tribune and Philadelphia Inquirer face bankruptcy; the London Evening Standard was sold for £1. Enders, the media consultant, says half the jobs in UK local papers, 20,000 people, could go in the next five years. Unfortunately, I agree with them unless radical steps are taken.

Having had a ringside seat for more than a decade, I have three predictions for the local newspaper industry in the UK by 2014: total local advertising income will be less than it is today; many local daily titles will have been converted into weeklies; and the number of journalists and sales people will be down 50 per cent.

It was government that, inadvertently, gave local papers false hope. Since the late 1990s the locals have been deluded with classified cash. Job vacancies and advertising were plentiful as local authorities took on thousands of civil servants. Cheap mortgages led to abundant property supplements. Local publishers got hooked on the crack cocaine of classified thanks to their unwitting dealers in the town hall and Whitehall.

When classified cash began to dry up in 2007, most publishers were not ready to respond and had built up debt and staff levels that assumed the money would flow for ever. But with the web a working reality, the old income is never coming back to print. Something dramatic must happen to make community media franchises viable.

Daily local titles no longer match the desires of readers and advertisers. Few people buy a local paper six days a week. They buy it when they want it: Wednesday for the gardens feature, Friday for the entertainment, and Saturday for the sport.

Some managers argue that a failing six-day-a-week paper is still better than one that comes out once or twice. But economics shows that they are wrong. A strong weekly paper – in effect a print-out of the best content from a well-resourced 24/7 website – is a better proposition.

Journalists are often busy doing things the audience no longer want. The traditional professional output is no longer valued by readers. Much, but not all, of local news gathering, feature production and photography are better done by enthusiastic amateurs for next to nothing. Want a critique of local rubbish collection policies? Ask a local resident for 500 words. It matters to them and they are more connected than a journalist sent over in a taxi. Want passionate reporting of local sports? Ask the fans. There will remain a vital role for trained journalists in investigations, analysis and quality control. But it will need fewer of them. They will need new skills of assembling user-generated content including video, digital pictures and audio.

Advertising is also going self-service. Dictating copy over the telephone to an operator in a remote call centre is inefficient. Most local advertisers are now semi-professional: estate agents, car dealers, local retailers. Given the right software they can create their own advert and use a website to book the space. A few years ago this was theory. Now that software exists and it works.

As a former NUJ member, predicting a huge reduction in numbers of local journalists gives me no pleasure. These job cuts will not be an attempt to drive up profits. They are an inevitable result of changes in technology, the market and consumer demand.

Local democracy and identity are important to most of us and a vibrant and independent local media committed to campaigning and disclosure is vital in protecting local values. But this role can no longer be played by high-cost, under-resourced newsprint products that depend on vanishing classified advertising. Technology has changed the game beyond recognition.

Faced with the meltdown, local media executives fall into two camps: ruthless cost-cutters who want to do more of the same, more cheaply; and visionary modernisers who are embracing a radically different way of doing business. Only the latter will prosper in the face of unstoppable change. Unfortunately for job prospects, both approaches will lead to cuts in headcount. Evolution or extinction is the stark choice ahead for the industry.

Published by: Roger Parry

Published 26th February, 2009

Add comment